World-System Technologies

   The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics ( here ) was awarded for having explained the role of innovation and  Creative Destruction  in  Sustained Economic Growth . Particularly interesting (to me) was the Aghion and Hewitt paper   A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction , which won them part of the Prize. Does the 2025 Nobel Prize have anything to say about current French economic development and political instability? I have two explicit models for technological change, one for Productivity change ( TECHP ) and another for Efficiency change ( TECHE ). The models are based on  State Space  indexes (see the Notes below) constructed using  Principal Components Analysis  ( PCA ). The  Phase Space  for the FR TECHE model is displayed above. The  Phase Space  for the FR TECHP model is displayed below. Both models are cyclical and stable with periods of over a Century (see the  Notes  ...

The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded for both advances in our theoretical and  historical understanding of Technological Change . One reading of the work by  Joel Mokyr ,  Philippe Aghion  and  Peter Hewitt  is that new discoveries created by the random historical process of invention will always provide the technologies (through Creative Destruction ) necessary for continued, exponential economic growth.  The forecast above, generated by different WL20 Models , shows that emphasis on Technical Efficiency ( TECHE ), particularly reducing Emission Intensity (CO2/EG), provides the best future growth path for the World System. Economic Theory seems to be mostly focused on Technical  Productivity ( TECHP ). The historical work for this  Cornucopian  conclusion about the Future ( Joel Mokyr )  was based on studying the Industrial  Revolution during the period 1500-1700. The theoretical work ( Philippe Aghi...

  Notes The first six indicators in  standard scores  are taken from the  World Development Indicators  (WDI). KOF =  KOF Index of Globalization , EF =  Ecological Footprint , HDI =  Human Development Index .  State Space Model Estimation The Measurement Matrix for the  state space models  was constructed using  Principal Components Analysis  with  standardized  data from the  World Development Indicators . The statistical analysis was conducted in an extension of the  dse package . The package is currently supported by an online portal ( here ) and can be downloaded, with the R-programming language, for any personal computer  here .  Code for the state space  Dynamic Component models (DCMs)  is available on my Google drive ( here ) and referenced in each post. Atlanta Fed Economy Now My approach to forecasting is similar to the  EconomyNow model used by the Atlanta Federal...

  This blog documents an approach to Technological Change that is consistent with General Systems Theory, which contains models that cover Neoclassical Growth Technology, Learning-by-Doing Technology, World-systems Theory and Classical models of Technology to include Schumpeter's Creative Destruction. None of these models are consistent over time within a single country and across countries. Partly, the changing approaches to Technology are historical and partly they are due to data limitations that prevent consistent testing over all time periods and countries.  Therefore, there is no general conclusion about technology accept that it may follow one of the time patterns above (unlimited exponential growth, growth and decline or decline). Moreover, Technological change is not always the best model to describe growth across time and countries. Different models may dominate during particular periods and in particular countries.