Technology Long Waves

  


The Kondratiev Wave is an important element of World-Systems Theory. The graphic above is taken from Andreas Goldschmidt and gives historical specifics for technological cycles. Goldschmidt's formulation allows for the idea to be tested (one of the models I always test), is partially consistent with economic Growth theory (particularly if we do not assume a functional form for exogenous disembodied technological change in the Solow-Swan Model) and I can present some examples.

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About

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  This blog documents an approach to Technological Change that is consistent with General Systems Theory, which contains models that cover Neoclassical Growth Technology, Learning-by-Doing Technology, World-systems Theory and Classical models of Technology to include Schumpeter's Creative Destruction. None of these models are consistent over time within a single country and across countries. Partly, the changing approaches to Technology are historical and partly they are due to data limitations that prevent consistent testing over all time periods and countries.  Therefore, there is no general conclusion about technology accept that it may follow one of the time patterns above (unlimited exponential growth, growth and decline or decline). Moreover, Technological change is not always the best model to describe growth across time and countries. Different models may dominate during particular periods and in particular countries.
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