World-System (1950-2000) The RUL20 TECHP Model

 





The RUL20 TECHE (Technical Efficiency) Model is the best model (using the AIC statistics) to describe Russian Economic Development during the Post-WAR period. This post is devoted to explaining how that model works.

The graphic above shows a negative one standard deviation shock to from each TECHE component (columns) to each RU state Variable (rows).


Notes


RUL20 Measurement Model

Three components in the RUL20 state space explain 96.8 % of the variation in the Indicators. The components are: (1) RU1 = Overall Growth, (2) RU2 = (0.516 KOF + 0.497 LU + 0.227 N - 0.4399 CO2 - 0.220 EG - 0.395 EF) Globalization-Energy Controller, and (3) RU3 = (0.594 GDP + 0.2254 HDI + 0.247 KOF - 0.394 N - 0.337 LU) Malthusian-Unemployment Controller.

TECHE Measurement Model

Three components of the TECHE Measurement Matrix explain 98.8% of the variatio in the indicators. The components are: (1) TECHP1 = (Productivity - 0.562 EG/GDP) Productivity - Energy Intensity Controller, (2) TECHP2 = (0.898 CO2/EG - 0.3760 L/N) Emission Intensity - Employment Controller, and (3) TECHP3 = Overall Efficiency.

The time plot (below) shows that all the Technical Efficiency components were affected by the Fall of the Soviet Union.



RUL20 TECHE Model

The RUL20 TECHE model is unstable but not cyclical. Cyclicality is introduced by TECHE effects from the  Fall of the Soviet Union. The model can be stabilized by reducing the diagonal coefficients of the System Matrix.


RUL20 AIC Statistics










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