Technology in the Roaring Twenties


 

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Technological Change in Israel: World-System (1960-2100)

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  Israel is a World-System leader in Technological Change . Google AI Notes: However, the description has been challenged: The Myth of Israel Innovation . Using the IL_L20 Models, the hypothesis of Israel TECH dominance can be tested.  The best short-term model, using AIC Statistics to make the selection, was the Business-As-Usual ( BAU) Model. The best Attractor Path model was the Regional Input ( MEA ) model. Neither TECHP (Productivity) nor TECHE (Efficiency) models were strong competitors (see the graphic above).   This post compares the models: BAU Model  In the Business-as-Usual model, technological change is measured by the coefficient on the Growth Component (the  Learning by Doing  coefficient ( F [2,2] = 1.02477066 in the IL_SYS BAU Model ). It is the primary driver of instability in the System. The BAU model is also cyclical  with  Eigenvalues   = 1.053345+0.0000000i 0.941244+0.0579742i 0.941244-0.0579742i. To create unlimite...
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World-System (1960-2100) WL20 Technology Growth Paths

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The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded for both advances in our theoretical and  historical understanding of Technological Change . One reading of the work by  Joel Mokyr ,  Philippe Aghion  and  Peter Hewitt  is that new discoveries created by the random historical process of invention will always provide the technologies (through Creative Destruction ) necessary for continued, exponential economic growth.  The forecast above, generated by different WL20 Models , shows that emphasis on Technical Efficiency ( TECHE ), particularly reducing Emission Intensity (CO2/EG), provides the best future growth path for the World System. Economic Theory seems to be mostly focused on Technical  Productivity ( TECHP ). The historical work for this  Cornucopian  conclusion about the Future ( Joel Mokyr )  was based on studying the Industrial  Revolution during the period 1500-1700. The theoretical work ( Philippe Aghi...
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World-System (1950-2150) Stable French Technology Cycles

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   The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics ( here ) was awarded for having explained the role of innovation and  Creative Destruction  in  Sustained Economic Growth . Particularly interesting (to me) was the Aghion and Hewitt paper   A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction , which won them part of the Prize. Does the 2025 Nobel Prize have anything to say about current French economic development and political instability? I have two explicit models for technological change, one for Productivity change ( TECHP ) and another for Efficiency change ( TECHE ). The models are based on  State Space  indexes (see the Notes below) constructed using  Principal Components Analysis  ( PCA ). The  Phase Space  for the FR TECHE model is displayed above. The  Phase Space  for the FR TECHP model is displayed below. Both models are cyclical and stable with periods of over a Century (see the  Notes  ...
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