A State-Space Model of the AI/LLM Industry, 2020–2040 and beyond

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I asked chatGPT how the Artificial Intelligence/Large Language Model industry worked and it generated a System Dynamics model calibrated on the period (2020-2024).

Notes

Wikipedia Links

• System Dynamics an approach to understanding the nonlinear behavior of complex systems over time using stocks, flows, internal feedback loops, table functions and time delays.
• Large Language Models a machine learning model (typically a neural network) trained on a vast amount of text for natural language processing tasks, especially language generation. LLMs can typically generate, summarize, translate, and analyze text in many contexts. They are the basis for many modern chatbots, such as ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, Qwen and DeepSeek.
• Artificial Intelligence  the capability of computational systems to perform tasks typically associated with human intelligence, such as learning, reasoning, problem-solving, perception, and decision-making. It is also a field of research spanning computer science, engineering, and mathematics that develops and studies methods and software enabling machines to perceive their environment and use learning and intelligence to take actions that maximize their chances of achieving defined goals.

ULS20 LLM Measurement Model

USL20 LLM BAU Model

USL20 LLM US-Input Model

USL20 AIC Statistics